Kardashev scale

Homo Sapiens, or humans, are a civilization on Earth that are considered Type 0.73 as of 2018. More details on the human species are here. The purpose of this page is to discuss the Kardashev scale and calculate the rating.

Michio Kaku suggested that if humans increase their energy consumption at an average rate of 3 percent each year, they may attain Type I status in 100–200 years, Type II status in a few thousand years, and Type III status in 100,000 to a million years.

Carl Sagan defined intermediate values (not considered in Kardashev's original scale) by interpolating and extrapolating the values given for types I (1016 W), II (1026 W) and III (1036 W), which would produce the formula K=(logP-6)/10 where K is a civilization's Kardashev rating and P is the power it consumes, in watts. Using this extrapolation, an early Type 0 civilization, not defined by Kardashev, would consume about 1 MW (106 W) of power.

A toe is a "tonne of oil equivalent" which is 42 gigajoules and 1 Mtoe = 11.63 TWh (terawatts per hour).

Humanity's civilization type as of 1973 was about 0.7, using 7 101.3 Mtoe = 82 588 TWh arriving at an average hourly power consumption of 10 terawatts (TW).

Total Mtoe is primary energy found in nature and not yet engineered. It is all non-renewable and renewable, comprised of oil, coal, gas, minerals for nuclear power, solar, wind, hydro, biomass and geothermal. This total is used to calculate the K-rating.

In 2018, the total world energy consumption was 14 421 Mtoe = 167 716 TWh for the year. The calculation is 167716 / 365 / 24 to get an average hourly power consumption of 19.14 TW. The final calculation is (log 19 140 000 000 000 - 6) / 10 to make 0.73 on Sagan's extended Kardashev scale.

2018 data sources from International Energy Agency (source 1 and source 2) and original source.

2019 data is 583.9 exajoules = 162194.44 TWh.

EIA projects nearly 50% increase in world energy usage by 2050. This is about 29 TW which approaches 0.75 on the Kardashev scale in 2050.

Freeman Dyson calculated in 1959 that if mankind's Malthusian (exponential) growth rate in energy consumption were to continue, the human race would reach a crisis point within the next two to three millennia. At this point, all the non-renewable sources would be exhausted, and even renewable sources exploited on a planet-wide scale would be unable to cope with further demand. To provide for future growth, the human race will need to capture much more of the Sun's light with a Dyson sphere.

A note here about energy consumption vs efficiency, illustrated via examples:


 * If you charge an electric car via your electrical grid or solar power, the amount of energy consumed to charge the battery counts towards consumption. The rate at which it consumes that stored energy in the battery counts towards efficiency, for example 1000km on a full use of the battery.
 * A fuel-powered car counts consumption at the rate at which it consumes fuel, for example 10km per liter. The rate at which it consumes the fuel counts towards efficiency, for example 600km on a full 60 liter tank.
 * If the electric car and fuel-driven car have the same engine rating (for example 100kW), and the electric car takes you further, that means it is more efficient, and its energy consumption is less.
 * What you use in your household is the reading on your meter that you pay for, charged per kWh. Industrial plants generate the power from consuming resources, and we consume the generated power.
 * If you have solar panels in your household, an inverter would generate electric power from the sun as a renewable resource, and we consume that generated power.